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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to energize a Labour conference and to show Labour was becoming disillusioned with its then leader. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase met with wild cheering as delegates rose in spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "We are not excluding remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that darkly divisive time in 2018, departing from his agreed text like this was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who sought to prioritize leave supporters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments within Labour. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious opposition Brexit spokesman was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who would stand up for the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position and Settled Issues

In the years since, the landscape has shifted, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was declaring the Brexit issue had been settled by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out rejoining the European Union or its core structures.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe is no longer the central crisis of British politics, a lid which was firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language regarding the damage that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in an economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller compared to EU membership, towers over the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted relationship reset agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains measured in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure and Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is among those attempting to bypass entrenched Home Office resistance to a broader scheme of a growth-enabling program for young people by which young people can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly about the clear advantages of joining a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While the Europe minister, who oversees EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the red lines are still in place, there exist avenues these could be bypassed. A proposal would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, with implementation only if securing a new electoral mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down on the idea cautioning that rejoining a European customs area would “unravel” the trade pacts with America, which he views as signature achievements of his government.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism run even deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Secondly, the exorbitant price set for the UK for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, America's latest security doctrine, praised by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Strategy and Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document claims Europe faces “civilizational erasure” because of immigration. It contains only one reference of the UK, found on a proposal that Donald Trump’s administration may interfere in British politics to foster the growth of nationalist movements.

But, far from deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo of 2018

This situation brings us back to the conference of 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not a pitch to become leader but merely an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain in a future vote. Indeed, in those days, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street note that the Health Secretary, widely considered would stand for the leadership, is part of a group of senior ministers signaling they want to go further on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, maintain she won’t discuss her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger & A Prudent Reminder

The danger is obvious. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where the overwhelming majority of Labour MPs, members and voters reside.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the effect just a few words had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations which the PM should not “rule out”; he should prise them open personally, rather than letting rivals makes them his – or her – own.